The Eagle Eye
Issue No. 122
SECTION I – AEROSPACE AND MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS
SITUATION REPORTS
THE AMERICAS
UNITED STATES: Ballistic Missile Contract Awarded
On Wednesday, 11 November, Alliant Techsystems Inc. (ATK) announced the winning of a $121 million contract concerning Trident ballistic missiles and currently supplied weapon systems. The Trident contract is a $100 million deal with Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) to continuing producing the propulsion system for the missile through 2013. The Trident is currently the only submarine-based strategic missile in production. ATK has a 53-year history of producing submarine-launched ballistic missiles. The remaining $21 million contract allows for ATK to continue supplying weapon systems for US forces in the Middle East. Among other systems, ATK is currently responsible for providing the .50 caliber Bushmaster machine gun for the M1 Abrams tank, and the M230 30mm chain gun for the Apache helicopter.
EUROPE
RUSSIA: Military to Receive 30 New Ballistic Missiles and 3 Nuclear Subs in 2010
12 November, RIA Novosti reported that in the President Medvedev’s address to the nation, he claimed the Armed Forces will be receiving 30 new ground and sea launched ballistic missiles (SLBM), three nuclear submarines, and other equipment. This list will also include five Iskander missile complexes, 300 modern armored vehicles, 30 helicopters, 28 aircraft, one corvette warship, and 11 spacecraft. Most of the ballistic missiles produced in 2010 will be Bulvala SLBM’s needed for Russia’s new fourth generation Borey class ballistic missile submarines. Currently Russia has one Borey in service, with another being commissioned by year’s end. It would take 36 Bulava SLBM’s to fully arm both submarines. Currently the Bulava is in a test phase, having failed 6 of its 11 tests. However, another test is scheduled for 24 November 2009, and this will determine whether the Bulava will enter production for 2010 or be put on hold for further development.
RUSSIA: New Frigate for Indian Navy
The INS Talwar, first of three new frigates being built for the Indian Navy by Russia’s Yantar Shipyard in Kaliningrad, will be completed on 27 November 2009. The frigate is a modified Krivak III Guided Missile Frigate, designed to fulfill a variety of maritime operations including hunting and killing large surface ships and submarines. The last frigate is expected to be delivered to the Indian Navy by 2011-2012. The new frigate is capable of 30 knots at a water displacement of 4,000 metric tons. She will be armed with eight BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles, 100-mm gun, a Shtil surface-to-air missile system, two Kashtan air-defense gun/missile systems, two twin 533-mm torpedo launchers, and an anti-submarine warfare helicopter.
RUSSIA: New Deal with India on Admiral Gorshkov Carrier Overhaul
15 November, RIA Novosti reported that Russia and India will be signing a new deal to provide additional funds needed for the Russian refit of the Admiral Goshkov aircraft carrier. In 2004 a deal was signed where Russia would give India the inactive aircraft carrier hull under the conditions that India agree to a future USD 1.5 billion contract. The contract would include modernization, refitting with new weaponry, and aircraft. However in 2008, Russia pushed back the completion date to 2012, and claimed an additional USD 1.2 billion was required to complete the refit. The deal is expected to be signed by 19 November, at the conclusion of the Dubai Air Show.
RUSSIA: Mayor’s Son Kidnapped in Dagestan
18 November, RIA Novosti reported the son of the mayor in the town of Buinaksk, Dagestan was kidnapped on Wednesday. Dagestan is a Russian North Caucus Republic, and violence from the ongoing Chechnya conflict often spills over into neighboring regions, including Dagestan, Ingushetia, and Kabardino-Balkaria. Unknown assailants wearing camouflage uniforms abducted Gusein Gamzatov’s son while he was working at a construction site. It is reported the kidnappers fled the scene in a Vaz-21099 car.
BRIEFS
THE AMERICAS
BRAZIL: Purchase of Israeli Drones
Summary: A USD 350 million deal to buy Israeli drones will increase Brazil’s security capabilities, particularly for the upcoming World Cup and Olympic Games.
Development: Brazil has purchased Israeli drones to increase security measures before and during the 2016 Olympics. The deal was finalized on 11 November while Israeli President Shimon Peres was visiting Brazil and Argentina to discuss security concerns with their Presidents. The drones will be used to increase security around the favelas of Rio de Janiero and Brazilian border regions. In Rio de Janiero, gangs have control of the favelas and are responsible for numerous deaths due to turf wars. The Rio police will primarily use the Israeli Aerospace Industry drones to monitor the areas without risk to police personnel. Although negotiations have been ongoing for months, the incident last month in which a Rio Police helicopter was shot down by drug gangs in a neighboring favela, highlights the need for drone security. The three drones will be deployed around the city by year’s end.
Analysis: The drones are part of a nationwide increase in defense spending aimed at increasing national security prior to the 2016 Olympics. The 2014 World Cup, also held in Rio, will be a major test of the increased defense spending. Future use of the drones will be expanded to the border regions due to a clause in the contract which will allow for a future purchase of eleven additional drones. Security along the borders has increased following the October helicopter attack to reduce the influx of weapons from Bolivia and Paraguay. Arms smuggling has been the major source of illegal weapons in the country. The rocket that shot down the police helicopter was alleged to have been smuggled across the border into the country. Increased military spending has come under protest by some South American leaders, as fear of a continued arms race could hurt regional politics. Brazil denies these claims, stating that they are simply modernizing their military forces. The Israeli drones have been employed for military use prior to the Brazilian purchase.
[Eric Mortensen]
MIDDLE EAST
IRAN: Preparation for Israeli Strike
Summary: Iran has increased its production of ballistic missiles and silo missile sites in preparation for an attack by Israel or the US.
Development: Iran recently began digging hundreds of new missile launch silos in central and western Iran. Production of Iran’s Shahab-3, Shahab-4, and Sejil-2 ballistic missiles has increased. Iran is also developing a three stage, solid propellant, ICBM designed to carry a nuclear warhead with a range of 3,000 km, which is modeled on Pakistan's Ghauri-3.
Analysis: According to intelligence sources, Iran is producing more missile launch silos than it has operational missile batteries. Some missile silos are being used as a deception tool to mislead enemy forces about Iran’s actual launch pads. The dummy silos also include fake anti-air missiles and other air defenses. The delivery of the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system from Russia, which would be a powerful defensive measure against airstrikes, has also been in discussion in the world press this past week. This missile system purchased by Iran in 2007 has yet to be delivered. Tehran has threatened that if the S-300’s are not received soon, they will be forced to develop their own version of the air defense system. Moscow maintains that the delivery of the S-300 system would not violate current UN sanctions. Iran’s recent construction projects are an attempt to secure its nuclear installations from an Israeli or US attack. The completion of an ICBM capable of carrying a nuclear warhead is not strategically advantageous to Iran; it would trigger an internationally backed attack on Iran. This compounded with Iran’s current domestic issues would cause a destabilization within the country.
[Jose Daniel]
ISRAEL: Radar Bolsters Defense Capabilities
Summary: Israel’s new Raz Radar increases the precision of the IDF’s Artillery Corps second-strike capability.
Development: The IDF Artillery Corps in Israel has acquired a new inland defense weapons system called the Raz Radar System. The new system will be integrated into Israel’s Home Front Command to serve as a detection device for high-trajectory weapons. The Raz Radar will be able to identify short-range rocket fire and its origin in order to accurately triangulate landing sites. The new systems accuracy to identify and triangulate trajectories has three times the capabilities of the old system and will be able to identify rocket fire up to 90 miles away. Former Chief Artillery Officer Brigadier General Michel Ben-Baruch is confident that the system, which is manned by a 20-man Artillery Team, will give units the ability to retaliate with greater precision, firing in a counter-battery mode as soon as the ballistics of incoming missiles are triangulated.
Analysis: Hezbollah and other emerging groups in Lebanon are frequently firing Katyusha rockets at targets in Northern Israel. While Hezbollah is reported to have between 20 and 30 thousand of these rockets, the United Nations interim force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) has recently found and dismantled four Katyusha launching sites on the Southern border of Lebanon. Presumably the new radar system will bolster the IDF’s Artillery Command’s ability to detect and eliminate Hezbollah rocket teams who fire rockets on Northern Israel. Whether this new radar will deter Hezbollah and Hamas forces, is yet to be seen.
[Jake Alder]
SOUTH ASIA
PAKISTAN: Taliban Leader Relocates to Afghanistan
Summary: Maulana Fazlullah fled the Pakistani ground offensive and is now in Afghanistan calling for increased militant operations.
Development: Dawn News reported on 17 November that Maulana Fazlullah, head of a Taliban organization in Swat, has fled to Afghanistan. Fazlullah called BBC Urdu from an undisclosed location saying, “I have reached Afghanistan safely[...]we are soon going to launch full-fledged punitive raids against the army in Swat.” Fazlullah is the son-in-law of Sufi Mohammed, founder of the Tehrik-i-Nefaz-i-Shariat-i-Mohammadi (TNSM ), and co-opted the former TNSM into a Taliban parallel government that controlled the Swat district. Fazlullah, also known as Mullah Radio, operated a pirate FM radio station outside of Mingora, which he used to announce fatwas and impose Shari'a law throughout the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP). Fazlullah's appearance in Afghanistan follows recent rumors that the pro-Taliban cleric had either died or been captured by the Pakistani army.
Analysis: It is likely that Fazlullah has sought refuge in Nuristan, Afghanistan, where the US recently withdrew troops from four key bases. Nuristan is home to al-Qaida member and supposed Taliban commander Qari Ziaur Rahman. Previously, Rahman's spokesman had conducted similar telephone conferences with BBC Urdu. The statements released by Fazlullah were the first since his radio station was put out of action during the military operation that recaptured Mingora in May. Fazlullah's reemergence, at a critical time, along with calls for continued violence and threats against senior Awami National Party (ANP) members, will strengthen support amongst Pashtun nationalists to continue the fight against joint Pak-US counterinsurgency operations in Mohmand and Bajaur.
[James McCarty]
ARTICLES
EUROPE
RUSSIA: Warnings of New Georgian Conflict
Summary: Georgia’s continued military build up is causing concern within Russian intelligence, providing the basis for another Russian-Georgian conflict on the horizon.
Development: On Thursday, 5 November 2009, Lieutenant General Alexander Shlyakhturov head of the Russian military’s GRU or Main Intelligence Directorate stated the situation in Georgia was strained. He also accused NATO of supplying arms to the country, despite its aggression during the 2008 Georgian Conflict. Lt. General Shlyakhturov further stated, “The situation with Georgia remains tense because the Georgian authorities do not just refuse to recognize the sovereignty of Abkhazia and South Ossestia but are trying in every way to return these countries… to their jurisdiction”.
Analysis: Lt. General Shlyakhturov’s statements are not merely rhetoric from Moscow, but significant insight into a situation in Georgia, that may develop into open conflict within the next year. The GRU has never been a mouthpiece of the Russian Federation, nor were Lt. General Shlyakhturov’s comments widely spread across mainstream Russian media, indicating his concerns to be more than Russian rhetoric but legitimate concerns. When Georgia’s President Mikheil Saakashvili came to power, one of his primary goals was to modernize the Georgian military, not for defense against Russia, but to exert military domination over the autonomous regions South Ossetia and Abkhazia which broke away from Georgian control in the early 1990’s. Prior to the Georgian invasion of S. Ossetia on 7 August 2008, Georgia had been purchasing massive amounts of military hardware, particularly from Ukraine a part of preparations for an offensive to reclaim those regions, while Saakashvili also began looking to the West and the United States for support and protection. From 2007 to 2008 alone, Ukraine provided Georgia with 40 T-72B tanks, 14 Osa missile complexes, 60 BTR-70 APCs, 17,000 AK-47’s and over 100 million AK-47 cartridges. Banking on his newfound allies to deter Russian military intervention, Saakashvili began his offensive in South Ossetia on 7 August 2008. However, with the US occupied in the Iraq and Afghanistan, and the EU unwilling to commit military manpower, Russia entered the conflict the next day having witnessed the Georgian’s own buildup and brought troops to the border to pre-empt Georgia’s moves.
The 2008 Russian-Georgian war accomplished two significant objectives for Russia. First it showed Moscow was still the dominant power in the region, not the United States, in a lesson designed to dissuade other former Soviet-controlled nations from shifting allegiance from Russia to the West. Secondly it resulted in South Ossetia and Abkhazia being recognized by Russia as ‘sovereign’ nations, and the effective control of both regions was transferred to Russia, providing forward military bases south of the Caucus Mountain Range. This has providing Moscow a strategic position for further military engagements in the area as the only passage through the Caucuses is the Roki Tunnel. This tunnel effectively connects North and South Ossetia through the mountain chain and controlling both these regions is a critical geostrategic advantage.
Georgia has not ceased to increase its military capabilities since the 2008 invasion. Georgia recently engaged in several military exercises with the United States and other NATO members, and has been receiving military training in NATO tactics from the US. Washington is also currently in the process of a $100 million arms deal with Tiblisi, including the sale of the Patriot air defense system. Eastern European NATO members have been providing large shipments of small arms and ammunition. Israel has provided unmanned aerial vehicles to the Georgian military. However, Ukraine is the most important arms provider to Georgia, providing heavy artillery, anti-aircraft systems, tanks, armored personal carriers, heavy attack and transport helicopters, and shoulder operated air defense missiles.
These arms deals with Ukraine are being done in questionable circumstances. There have been no official agreements between the Georgian and Ukrainian governments. Instead, arms supply channels run between Georgia and Ukraine’s state owned Ukrspetsexport Company. According to Valeriy Konovalyuk, head of the Ukrainian parliamentary commission tasked with looking into Ukraine arms sales to Georgia, “In the past four years, arms sales yielded 2.5 billion with only around 200 million reaching the budget”. He further claimed that Ukraine’s military has been cannibalized by these sales, with badly needed equipment and hardware being taken from Ukraine army units to be sold at discount prices to the Georgian Army.
This is a significant development, as it appears that Georgia did not learn from its recent conflict with Russia; rather it is going to great lengths to continue its rearmament in its pursuit of reclaiming South Ossetia and Abkhazia. This can not be a defensive move against Russia, as Georgia has no possibility of defeating Russia militarily unless it is backed by heavy US military involvement. This would be near impossible, as the US currently has limited capability to station military forces in the region. Saakashvili has not ceased his rhetoric concerning Georgia’s right and will to reassert control over Abkhazia and South Ossetia. For Russia’s part, Moscow has no love for Saakashvili or his pro-western government. It is highly probably that the Kremlin will attempt to remove his government from power through covert operations, which would prompt Georgian military action that would legitimize another Russian military incursion. Military and intelligence special forces caused the needed provocation which drew the Georgian government into the 2008 war initially, and it would not be surprising to see similar tactics used by Russia to create another conflict in the region. This would allow Moscow to further expand its sphere of influence to the entirety of Georgia.
[Mathew Rathe]
SECTION II – POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
BRIEFS
EUROPE
EUROPEAN UNION: Selection of New President
Summary: Belgian Prime Minister, Herman van Rompuy, has been chosen as the first EU president by unanimous decision.
Development: On Thursday, 19 November, the 27 EU leaders meeting at the summit in Brussels unanimously voted on the new EU President and Foreign Policy Minister. The European Council, which has been made an official institution by the Lisbon Treaty, chose Belgian Prime Minister, Herman van Rompuy, as the first EU President, and the current EU trade commissioner, Baroness Catherine Ashton, as the first EU Foreign Policy Minister. The two positions, which were created by the Lisbon Treaty, are two-and-a-half year terms, of which the appointees can be reelected once. While the specific role of the EU President has yet to be determined, he will chair future EU summits and serve as the representative for the EU in the international community.
Analysis: Both Prime Minister Van Rompuy and Baroness Ashton are viewed as consensual politicians who have limited foreign policy experience. There has been a lot of controversy over the position of a President for the EU, with many leaders and critics concerned that the new authority has not been properly defined. The performance of Mr Van Rompuy during his time as EU President will help define the extent of the power that has been given to his position. Mr Van Rompuy, when elected as the Belgian Prime Minister, was given the task of uniting the linguistically divided government, and bringing his country through the recent economic crisis. His supporters believe he has accomplished this task, and many hope he will be able to further unite the EU.
The current situation of the European economy will be both Mr Van Rompuy’s and Baroness Ashton’s first priorities, as many of the member nations have yet to recover from the recession. The two appointees will also be faced with the deteriorating relations between Eastern Europe and Russia. Russia’s plan for the Nord Stream Pipeline has left Eastern European nations, specifically the Baltic nations, with serious concern. The pipeline is the result of an energy trade agreement between Germany and Russia that would bypass the Baltic Pipeline System and the Yamal-Europe System that are current in place. Mr Van Rompuy will have to ensure that the EU remains a solid entity, especially towards the international community.
[Matthew Whitney]
SOUTH ASIA
INDIA: Dalai Lama’s Holy Visit Criticized
Summary: The Dalai Lama’s visit to a holy city in the disputed Eastern Himalayan border region has further inflated the tension between India and China.
Development: The Dalai Lama upset the Chinese government by visiting a Buddhist monastery last week. The monastery, located in the town of Tawang in the Arunachal Pradesh region, is considered the second most holy city for Tibetan Buddhists. The region is disputed by both China and India, and border tensions have been increasing. Beijing claims the visit is anti-Chinese and is designed to ruin Sino-India relations. The Dalai Lama and the Indian government say the visit is for religious purposes, with no political motive. Historically, Tawang is significant to the Dalai Lama. It is the first town in Indian controlled territory he reached when he fled Tibet in 1959.
Analysis: Beijing claims that all of the Dalai Lama’s travels are politically motivated and anti-Chinese. Despite visiting Tawang several times previously, this visit has drawn the most criticism. This is the second trip the Dalai Lama undertook this year which has brought explicit Chinese criticism; the first was his visit to Taiwan at the end of August. China accuses the Dalai Lama of spreading anti-Chinese sentiments and encouraging Tibetan-separatist movements. While Beijing has voiced plenty of criticism, they will not overtly attempt to undermine the Dalai Lama during this visit. China and India have fought over the Arunchal Pradesh region before, but it is unlikely that a conflict will spark over the Dalai Lama’s visit.
[Ian Robertson]
EAST ASIA
CAMBODIA: Relations with Thailand Decline
Summary: Cambodia and Thailand have expelled each other’s top diplomats.
Development: Cambodia expelled Thailand’s First Secretary from the country, resulting in Thailand rapidly following suit, and expelling Cambodia’s First Secretary from Bangkok. Thailand already had withdrawn its ambassador after Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was appointed to be a financial advisor for Cambodia. Thaskin Shinawatra was exiled from his country in 2006 after a military coup, and still faces a two year sentence on fraud charges if he ever re-enters Thailand. On Wednesday Thailand issued extradition papers for Shinawatra, which were rejected by Cambodia.
Analysis: Relations between Thailand and Cambodia will continue to decline while both the Thai government and Shinawatra remain in power. This is due to a large group of Shinawatra supporters in Thailand called the red shirts. The country is still largely divided over the issue of Shinawatra’s forcible expulsion from power. The red shirts wish to reinstate Shinawatra as prime minister, despite attempts by the Thai government to extradite and arrest the former leader in exile.
[Ian Robertson]
CHINA: Overstated Economic Data
Summary: Repeatedly high economic statistics of China are the result of institutional and structural flaws in China’s statistical apparatus which skew and exaggerate economic health.
Development: Since the introduction of Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms in 1978, the Chinese have reported astounding economic growth. In terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Chinese growth rate has been reported in double digits for most of the past three decades. At the reported rate of growth, it is expected that Chinese GDP will overtake American GDP in 2012. Still, China has a much larger population, so its reported per capita GDP is still well below that of the US. Nevertheless, contemporary economists, scholars, and media pundits have declared that China’s apparent economic success suggests that China’s mixed economy might be an example to follow.
Analysis: China’s GDP statistics seem to support the case for government regulation of markets, but there is a problem with the data: they are vastly exaggerated. In 2007, the World Bank published a report on Chinese GDP using the standard method of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) to measure Chinese GDP in terms of US dollars. The result of this study was the discovery that Chinese GDP was much lower than previously believed. This measure of GDP reduced China’s reported figure of ten trillion to roughly six trillion dollars. Chinese GDP was thus overestimated by 40 percent. Chinese GDP is actually half of American GDP, and Chinese per capital GDP is still very much lower.
China’s unreliable statistics are the result of its haphazard methodology of collecting, interpreting and presenting numerical data. There are a number of factors, both apolitical and political, which convolute and distort China’s statistical apparatus. Apolitically, China’s immense geography and population make measurements difficult because of sheer size and distribution. Politically, China uses certain statistical techniques in order to avoid accurate comparisons using international norms and to appear more developed than it really is. On a local level, Chinese officials are motivated to manipulate data and forgo economic realities to improve the image of their performance and thus their careers. Operating from such unreliable official statistics, it is difficult for the Chinese government to make sound economic forecasts and policy decisions. Calls for statistical reform have emerged in response to this predicament but achieving the complete statistical overhaul that is needed there will take time and will be no easy task.
[Brendon Wolfel]
PHILIPPINES: Anti-Torture Law Signed
Summary: In an attempt to improve the country's image and be eligible for foreign aid, President Arroyo signed an anti-torture bill into law.
Development: Philippine President Arroyo signed a bill criminalizing torture and prohibiting state officials from using secret detention centers, her spokesman announced Friday, 13 November. Human rights groups have put the Arroyo administration under pressure since the fight against terrorism began. The US State Department and a U.N. investigator have also probed incidents that involve disappearances and deaths of left-wing activists who oppose the Arroyo administration. President Arroyo signed the bill during US Secretary of State Clinton's visit to the country. Secretary Clinton offered to assist the Philippines in its efforts to combat torture.
Analysis: President Arroyo's move is an effort to improve the Philippine's reputation on a global scale. Recently the US has withheld military aid to the Philippines due to human rights concerns. The US was scheduled to provide $2 million worth of military aid to the country; however, the 2010 military aid will not be released until the Philippines address human rights issues within the country. The law limits military actions concerning treatment of suspected Muslim and communist rebels in the country's anti-terror campaign. In addition, $500 million designated for reducing poverty from Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) is also being withheld unless the Philippine government solves its corruption issues. In 2007, MMC provided the country $21 million to help combat corruption within its government; however, since then the Philippines has made little advances in anti-corruption projects. Since President Arroyo took office in 1998 many people who opposed her administration have disappeared or killed. This move is also an attempt to restore President Arroyo's image and stop the rising opposition to her administration; however, this move directly affects the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and may increase its oppositon to the administration.
[Anna Castillo]
SOUTH KOREA: Plans for North Korea Collapse
Summary: The announcement by South Korea and the United States of a contingency plan to cope with emergencies in North Korea is fueling further tensions with the North.
Development: South Korea and the United States recently completed “Operational Plan 5029.” The plan is designed to respond to emergencies in North Korea such as regime collapse, a civil war, an outflow of weapons of mass destruction, a mass influx of refugees, or a natural disaster. The United States will assume the role of eliminating North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction while South Korea takes a leading role in most operations within the plan. Both countries are worried about a possible transfer of North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction and technology to other rogue states or terrorist groups. As time progresses, the US and South Korea will continue to develop specific details of the contingency plan.
Analysis: As a result of North Korea’s deteriorating internal situation, and threatening stance towards its neighbors, it is imperative that a plan be created to deal with potential emergencies that may arise. Washington and Seoul must be prepared to confront any threats, whether military or otherwise, that North Korea repeatedly creates. The instability and secrecy of North Korea’s regime will continue to pose a threat to the region as long as the dictatorship exists. Some experts believe it will be wise if the US and South Korea include neighboring countries in the contingency plan to help relieve the burden that will South Korea will have if an emergency occurs.
[Christopher Mallen]
ARTICLES
EUROPE
RUSSIA: Sowing the Seeds of Influence in Singapore
Summary: Russian corporation Gazprom set to become Singapore’s sole natural gas supplier. This demonstrates a critical development in the region, as it provides Russia a foothold to begin spreading influence within a traditional US ally. This may lead to further military cooperation between the two countries and a surge of Russian influence in the region.
Development: Gazprom is situated to become the sole provider of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Singapore when the British Gas company’s current agreement expires at the beginning of 2010. Gazprom is a Russian corporation and the world’s leading energy supplier. According to the head of Singapore’s Keppel corporation, Choo Chiau Beng, “In the future, Gazprom will become a supplier of energy carriers to Singapore, and we will try to provide it exclusive rights when cooperation with British Gas ends”. This statement came during talks with Russian President Medvedev during his recent visit to Singapore earlier this week.
Analysis: This is an important geopolitical development, with the potential to provide Russia a location for permanent influence in Southeast Asia. Beng’s statement comes during the recent visit of the Varyag, a Russian Guided Missile Cruiser and flagship of the Pacific Fleet (pictured above), which was dispatched to further develop friendly relations between Russia and Singapore. The Varyag was in Singapore from 11 November through 18 November. Moscow’s Naval Forces have been significantly active over the past two years, with task forces deployed to every major body of water on the globe. The presence of the Varyag in Singapore was the first sign of Russia’s developing interest in pursuing a lasting influence in Singapore.
On 16 November Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong agreed to establish a new intergovernmental commission tasked with exploring economics, science, and technology. It was also mentioned that Singapore and Russia have the “potential to step up military exchanges and security cooperation”. Russia historically has coupled Gazprom’s abundant and reliable energy supply at discount prices with the purchase of Russian military hardware at a later date. This means Russian ‘advisors’ will be dispatched to Singapore to oversee both the military and energy sectors of a country, thus providing Russia with unprecedented influence in the government. Should Singapore begin to purchase military hardware and participate in military exercises with Russia, Moscow’s influence could very well assume a military dimension.
Moscow is also attempting to expand its naval capabilities and presence across the globe. Most significant is the current plan to expand the current surface fleet from 39 warships to 300. This includes a project to build and deploy six aircraft carrier battle groups to the Pacific and North Sea Fleets (three carrier battle groups each) by 2025. This is a highly optimistic plan, as Russia’s shipbuilding resources were completely degraded after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Despite this Russia will likely reach 70-80% of her projected goal by 2025 assuming oil and natural gas prices do not decline sharply. With this projected increase in Naval capabilities, Russia has also begun to seek out new warm water ports to station elements of her fleets. Both Tartus, Syria and Benghazi, Libya are being renovated for use by the Black Sea Fleet. Thus it would not be unreasonable to assume, should Russia begin to foster a friendship within the Singapore energy and military sectors as it appears to be doing, Russia would be given access to a Singapore port to be used to station elements from the Pacific Fleet. In this event, the presence of a Russian carrier battle group in Singapore would greatly impede US efforts to control the Malacca Straits, and inadvertently threaten the national security of Japan, Korea, and Taiwan.
Singapore is a strong historical US ally in the region. It is geo-strategically significant, due to its location on the southeastern tip of the Malacca Straits; the most heavily used sea route to ferry goods between Southeast Asia and Europe and the Middle East. The Malacca Straits have been under US control since the end of the Second World War, and is a vital lifeline for Japan, Taiwan and Korea as a maritime transit-way for Middle Eastern oil. Natural gas has been one of Singapore’s largest imports each year, with a projected importation of 300 billion cubic feet in 2010. At the current market price of natural gas ($3-$4 per thousand cubic feet) it is expected Singapore will be paying between $900 million and $1.2 billion on natural gas imports for 2010. Although this price reflects regular natural gas, the price projection will be more expensive due to the processes involved in transporting liquefied natural gas. This will provide Russia, via Gazprom, significant entry into Singapore’s economy and additional profits to allocate to military budget. Singapore’s natural gas shipments will be liquefied in Sakhalin, Russia, before being shipped by sea tankers to Singapore to be deliquefied back into ‘dry’ gas. Gazprom contributed more than 10% of Russia’s GDP in 2008. Nearly 50% of its shares are owned by the Russian government.
This is an interesting development for Singapore; as it has always received natural gas via pipelines from the British Gas company. Switching to Gazprom and LNG means Singapore will need to build a new LNG facility on Jurong Island to deliquify the Russian LNG. This is more expensive, as it is impossible to ship natural gas via sea tankers unless it has been liquefied, increasing its shipping costs tremendously over using pipelines to transport non-liquefied natural gas. This is a significant political sign to the US and the West by both Russia and Singapore. Singapore is showing the first steps towards looking to Russia for a future partner in not only energy, but military cooperation. Russia, for her part, is actively seeking to expand into South East Asia. By targeting Singapore, Russia hopes to make a calculated blow to degrade America’s Southeast Asia relations and security framework in the region. This could be the first step in a calculated shifting of influence in Southeast Asia in Russia’s favor if not properly countered by the US.
[Mathew Rathe]
MIDDLE EAST
ISRAEL: Evolving Confrontation with Hezbollah
Summary: Lessons learned from the six-week war in 2006 are still being incorporated by the Israeli Defense Force (IDF). The purchase and development of new weapons and missile-detection systems are results of these lessons learned.
Development: Recent explosions occurred near the villages Houla and Meiss al-Jabal in Southern Lebanon. No injuries or collateral damage were reported, but the source and cause of the explosions have been identified as Israeli operations. Lebanese forces and UNIFIL claim that the explosions resulted when Israeli forces destroyed underground sensors when these were discovered by Lebanese security forces. The sensors were placed in these territories in 2006 and were monitoring Hezbollah movements.
In addition to highly sophisticated sensors, new and advanced Laser-Guided Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs) from the US have been coming into Israel over the past few months. The JDAMs are highly accurate in all weather conditions, have a range of 15 miles, and can be equipped to fit all variations of the F-16. Israel has contracted to buy a series of new F-16s from the US that will be stationed at Ramon Air Base and Ramat Air Base.
The Winograd Report on the July War of 2006 was an in-depth investigative analysis undertaken to understand Israel’s strategic and tactical failings in the war. The commission that conducted the report was organized after families of soldiers who died in the war pressed for an investigation into the justification of the war and the manner in which it was executed. The inquiry concluded that “a semi-military organization of a few thousand men resisted, for a few weeks, the strongest army in the Middle East, which enjoyed full air superiority and size and technological advantages.” At the conclusion of this short six-week war, both the Chief of Staff and the Defense Minister resigned.
Analysis: The threat of Hezbollah and the outcome of the six-week war in 2006 have generated a sense of urgency within the Israeli military. Lessons are still being learned as investigative commissions delve further into the causes of the unexpected outcome. These lessons and their concern over the growing strength and influence of Hezbollah in Lebanon have led to weapon purchases, new military leaders, and a different approach to military operations as a whole.
One major problem was the openness of the strategic and tactical efforts of the military during the war with Hezbollah. The unauthorized communication of sensitive information between military personnel and the press allowed Hezbollah extensive knowledge on all operations. This approach has changed drastically, as is evident in Israel’s banning of cell phones and other communication devices from soldiers. Also, the lack of effectiveness in Israel’s missile-warning system has led to technological advances in their Home Front Command, such as the new Raz Radar system.
The numerous losses of civilian lives in Lebanon during the 2006 fighting were viewed as unacceptable in the international community. Given Israel’s purchase of state-of-the-art Laser-Guided Joint Direct Attack Munitions is evident that they are focusing on precision in their preparation for future conflict with Hezbollah. More important, however, is the commitment of the IDF to have clear objectives in the next conflict – either to achieve a lasting cease fire and stop arms smuggling from Egypt, or to bring about an entire collapse of Hezbollah.
[Jake Alder]
SAUDI ARABIA: Escalating Conflict with Yemeni Rebels
Summary: Rhetorical exchanges between Riyadh, Tehran and Sanaa reveal a rapidly escalating conflict in southwestern Saudi Arabia and northern Yemen. Naval deployments from both Saudi Arabia and Iran to Yemen’s coasts provide the means to propel the proxy-battle into a regional conflict.
Analysis: King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia stressed in a weekly cabinet meeting on 17 November that the Kingdom “will not tolerate any violations of its sovereignty and reserves the right to take all necessary measures to protects its citizens and territory, secure its border, deter aggression, and put an end to future attacks on its territory.” The statement was made in reference to recent Saudi responses to the Yemeni rebellion on the Kingdom’s south-western border. Forty-six Saudi clerics have echoed the King’s statement calling for Sunnis in the region to beat back the Shiite insurgency. The clerics’ statement clearly blamed Iran for the conflict, calling it an attempt to export Shiite doctrine into the Kingdom. Tehran responded in a statement by a senior military staff member the same day, calling Saudi airstrikes and military actions in Yemen, “Wahhabi state terrorism.” Sponsored by the Iranians, al-Houthi rebels have been increasing aggression since August in Yemen’s northern Saada region and over the border into Saudi Arabia’s Jizan and Najran districts south of Abha.
The exchange of rhetoric in the past few weeks reveals the nature of the situation on the Arabian Peninsula. King Abdullah’s statement at the cabinet meeting is a hard stance for the Kingdom; they will not be backing down in this conflict. Although religious scholars in the Kingdom have spoken of Iran’s role in Yemen, the House of Saud has remained publically silent to Tehran. This indicates, above all, that Riyadh will not be solving this through concessions or diplomacy; they plan to fight this insurgency into submission. The United States, the traditional provider of security for Saudi Arabia, has been notably quiet on the Yemeni insurgency. With ongoing efforts to approach Tehran diplomatically, the Saudi-Iranian proxy war likely is a subject the United States is publicly avoiding. Despite this, when King Abdullah met with CIA Director Leon Panetta on 15 November Yemen was likely on the agenda. With public proceedings between the United States and Iran such a hot topic in the world press, covert action through intelligence apparatus will be the only US aid Saudi may expect.
Meanwhile, Iran’s public statements reveal a different set of motives. Announcements directed at Saudi Arabia and Yemen have shown Iran’s involvement in the conflict in Saada. On 11 November, the Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said “collective efforts” from other nations could help curb the violence in northern Yemen and that Tehran was prepared to work with Yemen and other countries in pursuing peace. This statement was almost a direct call for Yemen or Saudi Arabia to approach Tehran to call off the Houthi rebels. The same day, the Foreign Minister of Yemen “categorically reject[ed] any interference in its internal affairs.” responding to Tehran’s offer. The next day, 12 November, The Saudi Embassy reported a phone call between King Abdullah and President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen to discuss “bilateral issues and regional developments.” On the 13th, Saudi Arabia evacuated approximately 250 villages in the Jizan and Najran districts to substantially increase air-strikes and military pressure against the Shia rebels, effectively giving their response to Tehran’s offer. Both Iranian Chief of Staff, Major General Hassan Firouzabadi, and Ayatollah Naser Shirazi criticized the Saudi offensive on 17 November, calling it an assault on Islam and “Wahhabi state terrorism.” These continued statements from Tehran are an alarming sign of a will to escalate the conflict.
Where the two countries may actually clash is in control of the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. Reports that Iranian weapons headed for the Houthi rebels were seized from vessels between Asab Harbor in southern Eritrea and the Salif and Shuqra ports spurred Saudi Arabia to dispatch three warships on 12 November. Two days later, Iran dispatched commandos and a number of warships to the area. The deployments were reported to have been made to protect Iranian ships against pirates, but it may very well be to protect these rebel supply lines. If any incident between these two Navies were to be made public, this proxy war would effectively ‘blow its cover.’ In a direct conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the United States would be forced to get involved. The aircraft carriers, USS Nimitz and USS BonHomme Richard, and the multipurpose amphibious assault ship, the USS Bataan, are all within range of the Gulf of Aden, deployed in the 5th Fleet AOR southeast of the Arabian Peninsula.
The statements and actions from Saudi Arabia show an uncharacteristic resolve against this Shiite uprising on its southern border. One may expect continued violence over the coming two weeks with little restraint from Saudi military command. Control of naval supply lines and rebel movement along the Saudi-Yemen border, particularly the mountainous region of Jabal al-Dhukan, will decide the battle. Depending on Iran’s resolve, the conflict may escalate quickly to a regional security threat.
[Bradley Smith]
THIS IS A GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING PREPARED BY THE STUDENTS OF THE GLOBAL SECURITY AND INTELLIGENCE STUDIES PROGRAM AT EMBRY-RIDDLE AERONAUTICAL UNIVERSITY IN PRESCOTT, ARIZONA. THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS BRIEFING ARE THOSE OF THE STUDENTS, NOT THE UNIVERSITY. FOR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS, CONTACT DR. PHILIP E. JONES, (928) 777-6992 OR THE EAGLE EYE EDITING BOARD AT eagleeye-editors@erau.edu. THE EDITORS ARE: BRADLEY SMITH, JAMES MCCARTY, MATHEW RATHE, LAUREN BROMLEY, AND ADAM KOSAK.