21 Feb 2010 2346MST Situation Report: On Monday, 19 October, French police arrested Aitor Elizaran Aguilar and Oihana San Vicente in the town of Carnac, BBC reported. Elizaran is said to be the co-leader of the Basque separatist group’s political apparatus, Batasuna. San Vicente is another “senior member.”
21 Feb 2010 2341MST Summary: French intelligence services have issued warnings that suicide bombers may be carrying explosives inside their bodies.
Development: On Tuesday, 6 October, French intelligence services publicized a warning that suicide bombers may attempt to conceal small amounts of explosives in their body in an effort to pass security. The current metal detectors are unable to read explosive material should it be placed within the body. According to officials, a single explosion using this method could bring down a plane. Authorities have considered x-raying every individual, but the health risks have negated that possibility. Officials also commented that al-Qaida has been publicizing the concept as a means of public disruption despite not having perfected the technique. This method was first used unsuccessfully against the Saudi Arabian Deputy Interior Minister Mohammed bin Nayef in late August, and has not been reported since. In that case, the suicide bomber secreted the explosives in his rectum.
Analysis: Al-Qaida released a statement saying it would post instructions of how to assemble bombs and concealing them inside the body. The release of this information may be a disruption tactic rather than a legitimate threat. This new method of explosives delivery threatens to change airport security methods in Europe and the Western world. New detection methods and security measures will need to be put in place should this delivery method grow more common. One possible security measure would require passengers to turn their cell phones over to the flight crew for the duration of the flight; this would stir protest from passengers and cause general disruption in airport security. This new tactic will bring increased invasive security measures around the world with little effective change to the al-Qaida threat.
[Matt Whitney]
21 Feb 2010 2321MST Summary: President Nicholas Sarkozy has supported a new initiative to create a census of French minorities, but this step could further tensions between Paris and ethnic minorities.
New Developments: A new commission, set up by Sarkozy and led by Yazid Sabeg, will attempt to find a way to measure the ethnic populations of France in an effort to decrease social discrimination. Many in France who are of African or Arabian descent often find themselves discriminated against in the workplace. France is commonly viewed as the most xenophobic country in Europe. It is illegal to classify people by race or religion in France because of a belief that this acknowledges the differences between individuals and destroys an environment of equality. Many businesses have, in the past, taken measures to make their hiring processes more equitable, but this is the first official move by the government to support such an effort.
Analysis: It would be understandable if Mr. Sabeg, being a Frenchman of Angolan descent, was biased towards the side of French ethnic minorities, but he has good reason. After coordinating the $60 million takeover of French engineering group Compagnie des Signaux (CS), it took Sabeg over two years to get his security clearance despite the fact that CS had contracts with the French military. This demonstrates the reality of racism in France despite legislation created to eliminate ethnic divides. President Sarkozy is likely supporting this movement for the obvious reason of eliminating this ethnic divide. However, France has yet to find a workable policy to deal with the history of violent public demonstrations by the growing population of ethnic minorities that have emigrated from Africa, particularly Muslim North Africa. More precision on actual numbers is a logical first step to measure the problem, better understand the potential for future public disturbances, and craft a policy that could integrate these populations more peacefully into French society Any census that identifies ethnic or religious minorities is sensitive and requires deft handling if the census itself is not to enhance social tensions.
[Andrew Stover]
21 Feb 2010 2317MST Situation Report: President Nicolas Sarkozy announced that France will return to the NATO military command after 43 years away, reported Agence France Presse 11 March. Sarkozy said this will make the country "stronger and more influential" among its Western allies. According to Reuters, however, Sarkozy noted that France will "not share decision-making over [its] nuclear force." Next week, Parliament will hold a confidence vote on the decision to return to full NATO membership.
21 Feb 2010 236MST Summary: Protectionist French economic policies are hurting the unity of the European Union and undermining the economies of newer, less prosperous members.
Development: President Sarkozy has announced the creation of a $7.75 billion loan to be made to the French auto industry. Two of France’s largest automakers, Renault and Peugeot-Citroen, have agreed, as part of the loan, not to outsource the production of their cars to other lower-cost nations. This poses a problem for the Czech Republic: where 17% of its 2007 GDP was earned from its auto industry, a large part of which was involved in the production of French cars. This, in turn, poses a problem for the European Union as the Czech Republic is the only one of the 27 European Union nations which has yet to ratify the Lisbon treaty, a key pact designed to streamline EU leadership and expedite the formation of EU policy.
Analysis: The Czech Republic has been putting off ratification of the treaty until the necessary majority is present in the Czech legislature. Prague had signaled that it was near the needed votes, but this move by France is likely to alienate enough legislators to and push the final ratification of this treaty further out of sight. Currently, the Czech Republic holds the six month rotating EU presidency, an office which was passed to Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek from French President Nicholas Sarkozy on January 1st. Ironically, the Lisbon treaty would eliminate the six month rotating presidency and would eliminate the ability of smaller nations, such as the Czech Republic, to restrict the implementation of Union policy, such as the Lisbon Treaty. If France’s actions do cause further delay to the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty, the unity of the European Union as well as the reputation of France and French President Nicholas Sarkozy will be damaged. More serious of course, is the damage of protectionism to the unity of the EU and then the prolongation of Europe’s recovery from the current global economic crisis.
[Andrew Stover]