21 Feb 2010 2322MST Situation Report: An Agency French Presse (AFP) correspondent reported at least 50,000 anti-government protesters had gathered in Tbilisi outside the parliament building in an attempt to force President Mikheil Saakashvili. The opposition leaders have vowed continued future protests.
21 Feb 2010 2257MST Summary: A new Premier reflects Presidential dominance in the altered balance of power in Georgia.
Development: President Mikheil Saakashvili has recommended Finance Minister Nikoloz Gilauri to be the next Premier of Georgia. The Georgian Parliament, where the President’s party holds a strong majority, is expected to appoint Gilauri on February sixth. This recommendation follows the resignation of the former Premier, Grigol Mgaloblishvili who was not a close ally of the President.
Analysis: There is no longer a traditional balance of power between the President and the Premier in Georgia. Gilauri will be the fifth premier in five years, and like the last three premiers, he has no further political ambitions. The President has centralized authority in the Presidency at the expense of Parliament and the Premiership. It is unlikely that a premier will become a political threat to the President in the near future. Georgia is no longer a parliamentary democracy, but a presidential democracy.
[Matthew Perry]
21 Feb 2010 2233MST Summary: Russian Cyber attacks and cell phone calls, used prior to the invasion of Georgia, may serve as possible early warning indicators in Moscow’s future moves against other former Soviet satellites.
Development: The recent invasion of South Ossetia by Georgian military forces, and the subsequent Russian response, has revealed information about the intelligence capabilities of both sides. An article in The New York Times on August 13th discussed a series of what appeared to be well-coordinated cyberspace attacks against Georgian government websites beginning as early as July 20th and continuing through the first air attacks by Russia. The attacks were never tied directly to Russian government networks. Georgian signals intelligence capabilities were also described in a subsequent Times article, published on September 16th, discussing new evidence that Russian forces had started the conflict. According to the article, a series of telephone intercepts from the Georgian cell phone company MagtiCom revealed communications about Russian troop movements as early as August 7th. The conversations were acquired by Georgian government officials following a request made through their Ministry of Interior to MagtiCom officials. MagtiCom, owners of the primary cell phone network operating in Georgia, is a US-owned firm.
Analysis: As tensions between a resurgent Russia and its former satellite republics continue to heat up, Russia will be forced to reveal more-and-more about its intelligence capabilities as it seeks to expand its sphere of influence. The more Russia reveals about its intelligence capabilities, the better US and NATO military forces can be prepared to act, should the military option ever have to be employed. Further, the fact that Georgian government officials were able to use cell phone communications and cyber attacks as a an early warning device for Russian incursions may provide future capabilities in other former Soviet satellites where US-owned companies own a majority share of cell phone networks.
[Daniel Main]
21 Feb 2010 2133MST Summary: The border clash yesterday between Abkhazian and Georgian border guards is the latest in a chain of events pushing Georgia and Russia perilously close to an open breach.
Development: On 9:30 P.M, Wednesday evening a firefight broke out between a group of Georgians and border guards in the Gali district of the breakaway republic of Abkhazia. An Abkhazian customs official was critically wounded in the exchange, and later died in the hospital. Both sides have given contradictory reports of the event. The Georgian Interior Ministry reported that Georgian guards were in hot pursuit of a stolen vehicle, which upon crossing the Abkhazian border, was supported by gunfire from the Abkhazian customs official, setting off the shootout. In their version, the Abkhazians reported that the Georgians tried to seize one of the border guards before the gunfire broke out. A representative of the Gali district claimed that the incident is part of a series of provocations by the Georgians.
Analysis: The incident occurred on the heels of a week of saber rattling between Georgian President Mikhail Saalashvili, Russian Generals and separatists in the break away regions of Abkhazia and Southern Ossetia, bringing the Caucus perilously close to another outbreak of war. Russian chief of the Armed Forces General Staff, General Yury Baluyevsky interprets a recent statement by Saakashvili, to address his country’s problems in the breakaway regions, as a resolve to use force. The incident is the second exchange of gunfire and casualties this month and indicates that tensions in the Caucasus are escalating toward another armed conflict.
[Satya Swaminathan]
21 Feb 2010 2130MST Summary: The killing of two Russian officers by Georgian security forces in the breakaway region of Abkhazia raises the specter of a major military move by Moscow against the US-backed government in Tiblisi.
Development: In an address to the UN General Assembly, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili confirmed that at least one of the two officers killed during the September 20th raid in the Tkvarcheli district of Abkhazia was a lieutenant colonel in the Russian military. The President of Georgia went on to say, ”One has to wonder -- what was a vice-colonel of the Russian military doing in the Georgian forests, organizing and leading a group of armed insurgents on a mission of terror?" Mr. Saakashvili concluded his U.N. address by warning, “This reckless and dangerous pattern of behavior must not continue.” Russian envoy to the UN Vitaly Churkin claimed that the two officers were killed at knife range, alleging an execution-style killing by Georgian forces.
Analysis: The killing of the two officers is only latest of ‘tit for tat’ incidents that are pushing Russia and Georgia to the brink of armed conflict. Russian-backed separatists in the two breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, both claimed by Georgia, have battled Georgian security forces since 1991, even though Russia and Georgia cooperated in joint peacekeeping attempts. In the recent past, Georgia’s arrest of Russian officers, along with allegations of Russian violations of its airspace, has led Tbilisi to claim that Moscow is actively supporting the insurgencies. The deterioration of relations between Tbilisi and Moscow has led Georgia to boost its defense spending by more than 25% in the effort to raise its army to NATO standards and boost army recruitment. Currently Georgia is spending 7.2% of its GDP on defense spending to counter what it claims are “outside threats” and may move further to cement its defense ties with NATO and the United States.
[Satya Swaminathan]