GERMANY: Man with Explosives Arrested [7 October 2009]

Situation Report: On Friday, 2 October, a man in possession of a small amount of explosive material and a homemade detonator was arrested in Frankfurt. The authorities took the man into custody after searching an office in Frankfurt and an apartment in Offenbach. The man is a dual German and Turkish citizen and is suspected of spreading propaganda for al-Qaida on the internet. The Munich Police also arrested two men last Saturday after increasing security at Oktoberfest.

GERMANY: Political Shift [30 September 2009]

Summary: The reelection of Angela Merkel and a change in Parliament have given the Center-Right a strong grip on federal seats.

Development: On Sunday, Angela Merkel won the federal election and will serve a second term as the German Chancellor. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) lost 76 seats, while the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) gained 13 and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) gained 32 seats. The previous Grand Coalition between the CDU and SPD has been dissolved, and a new coalition between the CDU and FDP is being discussed. The SPD will become the opposition party after 11 years in power. Chancellor Merkel and FDP leaders are holding talks to discuss tax cuts and business reforms. The main issues that this potential coalition will face concern tax cuts, national debt, and nuclear policy.

Analysis: The election results have shifted power away from the left. The new Center-Right coalition has given Chancellor Merkel the coalition she needs to push for reform in Germany. Chancellor Merkel and her allies will be working on both economic and social reform in the coming months. She will also be proposing an extension of the Nuclear Phase Out program that would shut down Germany’s nuclear plants by 2020. The Chancellor will be facing economic issues concerning the state of the German economy and the European financial system as a whole.

[Matthew Whitney]

GERMANY: Oktoberfest Increases Security after Threats [30 September 2009]

Situation Report: Terrorist threats prior to the German elections caused authorities to heighten security at Munich’s Oktoberfest. Armed guards are stationed at every entrance and heavy police trucks are blocking off nearby roads. Police say they have concrete evidence of an attack on the festival and recent Al-Qaida videos suggest a the group wants to target a mass gathering. Despite the increased security, the festival has seen continuous activity.  

GERMANY: Al-Qa’ida Threatens Attacks [22 September 2009]

Summary: Terrorist threats are an attempt to frighten German voters to back anti-war candidates in the upcoming elections and demand that German forces be withdrawn from Afghanistan.

Development: On 18 September, al-Qaida released a video message warning of terror attacks during the two weeks following the upcoming German elections on September 27^th, if there was no sign of a German withdraw from Afghanistan. The statement was given by Bekkay Harrach, a known al-Qaida operative. German authorities are taking the threat seriously, and are currently in the process of analyzing the video for details. The Federal Criminal Police (BKA) has stated that its greatest fear is an increase in kidnapping to appease political demands. Germany is currently the only country, other than the US to be directly addressed by al-Qaida, in its native language.

Analysis: The threat appears to be an attempt to use the so-called ‘Spanish model’ to influence voters preceding an election, in the same way that the train bombings in Madrid in 2003 brought in a government that withdrew Spanish troops from Afghanistan. This time, however, the only party that favors withdrawal is the non-coalition Left Party. Both of the leading candidates, Angela Merkel and Frank-Walter Steinmeier, have reaffirmed their support for involvement in Afghanistan with no intention of an early withdrawal. The video threat has succeeded in raising German security preparedness, but no impact is yet evident on the elections. 

[Matt Whitney]

GERMANY: Extremists Number in Hundreds [4 November 2008]

Summary: Berlin continues to be anxious about the significant presence in the country of radical Islamist and jihadi groups, which some believe constitute a ticking time bomb of future terrorist actions.

Development: According to August Hanning, Deputy Interior Minister, approximately 700 people in Germany may be involved in extremist Islamist circles.  Dozens of these have been classified by the country’s 16 states as dangerous and are “under especially intense surveillance.”  Hanning, who previously served as head of Germany’s foreign intelligence agency, said many of the most dangerous had attended terrorist training camps in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border region.  These terrorists plan inhuman attacks against “soft targets” in crowded, public areas that are difficult to secure, according to the Deputy Minister.

Analysis: Clearly, officials like Hanning are not willing to soft-pedal the threat of Islamist extremists to German and European security.  He believes the international community needs to do more to fight terrorism and is calling specifically for Germany to outlaw attending terror training camps.  Unwillingly, Germany continues to be a haven for radical Islamist cells, some of which continue to plan terrorist actions—such as the botched attempt last year to bomb trains in the country.