HUNGARY: Ratifies EU Treaty With Bulgaria and Romania [29 September 2005]

Summary: Hungary became the second European Union member state to ratify the treaty of accession signed between EU and Bulgaria and Romania.

Development: On September 26, 2005 the Hungarian parliament ratified the key document with 257 votes in support of Bulgaria’s admission to the Union. Slovakia led the way to the ratification of Bulgaria's accession treaty by signing last June.  Bulgaria and Romania signed the treaties on April 25, 2005 and their parliaments have already ratified it. The two Balkan countries hope to join the EU in January 2007, after all 25 EU member states ratify them.

Analysis: Bulgaria and Romania have a long year ahead to persuade 23 more member countries to ratify their accession treaties.  Already, Austria has given both Bulgaria and Romania thumbs down on EU entry on September 5, 2005.  Polls there show that only 21% of Austrians back the entry of Bulgaria and only 17% back Romania.  The main issue for Austria appears to be the extensive corruption at all levels of government reported in both candidate countries.  A recent incident involving the attempted smuggling of enriched nuclear material from Bulgaria into Romania highlights the problem of corruption.  The Bulgarian Customs stopped the shipment, but those arrested on the Romanian side were soon freed, presumably because of their mafia and government connections.

HUNGARY: Islamic Activist Arrested [15 April 2004]

Summary:  A Hungarian citizen of Palestinian origin, who works as a dentist and leads a small Islamic group in the country's capital, has been arrested in connection with a “bomb threat.”

Development:  On April 13th, Budapest police arrested an Arab (Hungarian citizen), suspected of planning an attack on a Jewish museum two days before Israeli President Moshe Katsav was due to open Budapest's new Holocaust Memorial Center.  The Arrest prompted immediate speculation, including among the President's entourage, of a plot to assassinate President Katsav.  Two Syrians were also detained for questioning, although apparently as witnesses rather than suspects. Hungarian Police Lt-Col Attila Petofi, stated that from last November, the suspect made phone calls to friends "to get explosives," and "asked an acquaintance to use the explosives to blow up a Jewish museum.” The unnamed suspect was charged with being involved in the "preparation for a terrorist attack.”

Analysis: Speculation about an attempt on the Israeli President's life had been heightened by continued fears in Israel about the retaliation promised in revenge for the assassination of the Hamas founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin by Israeli forces in Gaza on 22 March.  A Hamas statement shortly after the Sheikh Yassin killing appeared to imply that Israelis abroad could be targeted in retaliatory attacks.  Bin-Laden now also has threatened to retaliate for the assassination of Yassin.  A massive attack on the new Center could have killed many, including Jews, the Israeli President and Hungarian dignitaries.  This would have been another in the pattern of attacks already carried out in Casablanca, Istanbul, and Madrid.  

HUNGARY: Uranium Smuggler Caught at Border [26 February 2004]

HUNGARY: Uranium Smuggler Caught at Border

Summary: A man was captured trying to smuggle suspected nuclear bomb-making material into Hungary.

Development: On Tuesday, February 24, at the Tisa checkpoint between Ukraine and Hungary, Ukrainian border guards stopped a man trying to take possible nuclear bomb-making materials into Hungary.  Border guards arrested the driver of a passenger van after finding a container holding some 400 grams of uranium. 

It is unclear whether the uranium was in natural form or had been enriched for potential use in reactors or weapons.  Officials are holding the radioactive material at a secure facility, pending its transfer to Kiev for analysis.  The captured smuggler told officials he was paid an unspecified sum by men at a nearby gas station to take the material to Hungary for use "by a dentist's office." It is unclear where the uranium originated.

Analysis:  The incident is another reminder of the on-going underground trade in nuclear materials and technology involving those who may have access to stocks of fissile material in areas of the former Soviet Union.  In 2002, in another incident, Ukrainian police arrested three Russian men who allegedly tried to sell strontium-90 and plutonium-239.  The chief concern, of course, is that terrorist groups could get their hands on materials for a “radiation bomb” or even a portable nuclear device—perhaps one of the missing so-called suitcase bombs.  Earlier this week, CIA Director George Tenet told the Congress that Al-Qa’ida continues an active effort to procure some level of WMD capability.  

HUNGARY: Armed Forces Modification [19 February 2004]

Summary: The Hungarian government will submit a resolution proposal to Parliament to bring the country’s armed forces in line with NATO requirements.

Development: Late last week, the U.S. Supreme Allied Commander/Transformation (SACT) Admiral Edmund P. Giambastiani visited Budapest.  ADM Giambastiani reportedly told Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Zoltan that NATO greatly appreciates Hungary's military performance in the Balkans, Afghanistan and Iraq.  Giambasitiani’s was in Hungary to study the ongoing Hungarian army reform and see how NATO's transformation command could assist.  New challenges for regional armed forces include terrorism and the spread of weapons of mass destruction. 

Hungarian spokesman Zoltan J. Gal noted that a professional army better able to respond to current defense needs will be set up by the end of 2005, which means obligatory military service will be eliminated.  Hungary’s ground forces, air force and the logistics support units will reach their stand-by, deployable level by the end of 2010.  The full technical development and re-armament, and the creation of the final staff and actual strength proportions will be completed in the last stage that will run until 2013.

Analysis: The Hungarian cabinet resolution proposal submitted to Parliament is expected to pass.  However, a constitutional amendment is needed to simplify the deployment of troops abroad.  After the Parliament approves of the change, Hungary will have an agreed program to field a modern, well-equipped army that can be flexibly deployed. 

However, the spending of millions for military upgrades is one of the reasons why Hungary has such a huge deficit.  According to a preliminary report by the National Bank of Hungary on Thursday, the current account deficit was 437 million (Euros) in December and 4.584 (Euros) billion for the whole of 2003.  Bearing in mind the corrections to customs statistics announced on February 10, 2004, the yearly deficit was 4.168 billion (Euros).  Analysts had predicted a current account deficit of 4.688 billion (Euros) in 2003.

Fortunately for Budapest, there are some unmistakable signs of an improving economy, bringing to an end the slowdown of the last two-to-three years.  Among the hopeful signs are growing industrial output, investments and exports.  As of now, Hungary’s trade deficit is substantially higher than that of 2002, having grown by more than 1 billion (Euros).  Further, the non-debt-generating capital inflow covers less than 10% of the deficit, down from 30% last year.  Despite the unfavorable picture overall, improvements evident in the last few months should bring strong economic growth, rising investments, and a drop in the negative balance of trade.

HUNGARY: NATO Wants Quicker Build-up [5 February 2004]

Summary: Hungarian Defense ministry says it will responds positively to NATO’s concern that the Hungary’s military reforms are lagging. 

Development: In Budapest, on January 28, the daily Hungarian newspaper Magyar Nemzet revealed that NATO had sharply criticized the planned Hungarian armed forces reform. The Hungarian Defense Min ister Istvan Bocskai stated that Hungary and the Hungarian Armed Forces have valid obligations to NATO, and are working hard to meet them.  According to Magyar Nemzet, in recent consultations between NATO and Hungarian military experts, NATO officials expressed dissatisfaction with the pace of the armed forces reform.  On several recent occasions, Istvan Bocskai had said that he had received only positive feedback from NATO in connection with the reform plans.

Analysis: NATO’s dissatisfaction probably stems from Hungary’s reluctance to spend extra money to purchase and maintain air tankers and transport equipment, as well as develop an artillery battalion it has pledged to NATO.

Hungary plans to meet NATO’s obligations by giving US defense companies an offer in the spring to supply armaments for the Swedish Gripen fighters Hungary is acquiring.  The offer is expected to amount up to 23 billion of Hungarian currency with delivery by 2009-2010.  Hungary has an agreement with the Swedish government for 12 one-seater and two two-seater Gripen JAS 39 fighters worth 108 billion of Hungarian currency, in December 2001.  The contract was modified in February 2002 to make the new aircraft capable of mid-air refueling and compatible with NATO weapons systems.  Other changes mandate the fighters will be capable of using laser-guided bombs and have built-in electronic warfare systems, as well as on-board oxygen generator systems.  These changes raised the value of the contract to 138 billion of Hungarian currency.

The purchases office at the Defense Ministry has already floated an RFP for selected companies to supply ammunition for machine cannons and another one for the controlling units for laser-guided missiles.  The Hungarian Ministry is also planning to ask a German manufacturer for a quote on close-combat air-to-air missiles.