KOSOVO: Meeting with US Vice President [6 March 2009]

Summary: Vice President Biden hosted the leadership of the Republic of Kosovo to discuss current affairs in Kosovo and signal Washington’s on-going interest in strengthening the new state .

Development: On 26 February, Kosovo President Sejdiu, Prime Minister Thaçi and Foreign Minister Hyseni met at the White House with Vice President Joe Biden to discuss the concerns over the new nation’s international relations. The new administration, including Secretary of State Clinton, has reaffirmed US support for Kosovo and an interest in strengthening the relationship. During the recent meeting, Biden repeated that the United States would continue to support the Republic of Kosovo in the development of its democratic institutions, increase its presence in the international arena and contribute aid to build a more competitive economy in the region.

Analysis: Kosovo wants to join the European Union, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, but some members of these organizations believe the time is not ripe.  Although 55 countries now recognize the Republic of Kosovo, Serbia has a pending case before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) challenging the legality of Kosovo’s unilateral proclamation of independence. Russia and some other states insist the declaration of independence by Kosovo is a violation of UN Resolution 1244.  Moscow is leading support for Serbia and strongly backs its claim to Kosovo.  The issue is an on-going irritant in US-Russian relations and could again become a disruptive diplomatic contest.  For now, however, with the reference to the ICJ, the issue probably will go on to the back burner and not prevent Washington’s current initiative to improve relations with Moscow. 

[Avalon Dillon]

KOSOVO: Independence Declared [27 February 2008]

Summary:  On February 17, 2008 Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia, with support from the West and dissent from the East.

Development:  After more than two years of discussions regarding the separation of Kosovo (a southern province) from Serbia, Kosovo's assembly in Pristina unanimously endorsed a unilateral declaration of independence.  Prime Minister Hashim Thaci read the declaration, saying that the new Kosovo’s new parliament would be a "democratic country that respected the rights of all ethnic communities."  In response, Serbia has ordered its ambassador to the United States to return home and has maintained that Kosovo's move sets a dangerous precedent for other nations with separatist provinces.  Serbian President Boris Tadic asked the UN Security Council to annul the declaration of independence, while Serbian Minister of Foreign Affairs Vuk Jeremic called for urgent sessions of the UN Security Council, the OSCE Permanent Council, and the Council of Europe (CoE) Committee of Ministers.  Russia, who continues to support Serbia as an ally, also called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council.  This move of independence has been supported by many western countries including the US, Britain, and France, while countries such as Greece, Spain, and Romania have voiced their disapproval of Kosovo’s independence.

Analysis:  Although Kosovo has been under UN control since NATO warplanes expelled Serbian forces in 1999, the Serbian government vehemently opposes and has annulled the declaration set forth by Kosovo.  While the US and most of the EU said they are ready to recognize Kosovo's independence, at least six of the Union members will not do so, and Kosovo cannot count on UN membership due to Russia's veto powers.  Russia, which has fought two wars against separatist rebels in its southwestern republic of Chechnya, said US and European support for Kosovo's independence could lead to an "uncontrollable crisis" in the Balkans.  Serbia said it will not oppose independence with violence, but Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica said his nation will never accept the establishment of a "false country" on its territory.  Although meetings are to take place Monday, the citizens of the Balkan regions will most likely come out to voice their opinions.  Even though governments from both parties have agreed that violence is not the answer, the social and political unrest in the region has been building up for a long time.  It is only a matter of time before radical groups and citizens make their presence known.

[Victoria Aceves]

KOSOVO: Independence Will Bring Costs [3 February 2008]

Summary: The Kremlin’s promise to weaken an independent Kosovo will affect Russia’s policies in post-Soviet conflicts and former satellite areas.

Development: On January 17, the Kermlin announced that if Kosovo gains independence, Russia will block its entrance into the United Nations and other international groups. President Putin also warned against the precedent that such one-sided independence declarations will set for other frozen conflict areas. The UN Security Council failed to pass a resolution outlining Kosovo’s future by the December deadline, thereby extending the area’s status as a UN protectorate and as a part of Serbia. The United States and European Union are pushing a June 2008 deadline for independence, while Russia opposes any effort to divide the territory into two nations.

Analysis: If Kosovo secedes, Moscow could agitate pro-Russia constituencies in Northern Ossetia, Abkhazia and Transnistria to assert their independence under this same precedent. But Russia does not want the international community to set a standard demonstrating how a violent group, such as the Kosovo Liberation Army, can achieve statehood because separatists in Chechnya might follow suit. Russia’s interest lies in keeping Chechnya through increased force and boosting its political presence in so-called ‘frozen conflict zones,’ thus ensuring that these areas do not form a powerful alliance with the West. Vetoing Kosovo’s entrance into the UN is one example of how Russia will weaken any former allies considering a closer relationship with the US and the EU.

[Lauren Dehamer]

KOSOVO: Agreement Still Elusive [23 February 2006]

Summary:  The failure of initial talks between Serbs and new Kosovar President probably will mean increased pressure on the Serbs to compromise.

Discussion: UN mediated talks between ethnic Albanian and Serbian representatives in Vienna ended this week without agreement, but will resume in March.  These talks were closely watched as they were the first since the death of President Ibrahim Rugova, who had been instrumental in pressing for a peaceful resolution of disputes between the Serbs and Kosovar Albanians.  Concern that Kosovar groups might ratchet up violence in the aftermath of Rugova’s death are a concern among Western diplomats.  This week, two ethnic Albanians were detained after an attack on two Serbs in the Kosovar village of Suvi Do.

Guidelines set by six nations and the UN over the future status of Kosovo state that any agreement reached must be approved by Kosovo’s ethnic Albanians.  Although this is combined with a rule that the country may not be partitioned along ethnic lines, most observers believe Kosovo cannot be denied its ultimate goal of independence.  Current negotiations are really an attempt to work out the modalities of independence, along with security guarantees and possible autonomy for Serb majority areas in the northeast.

Analysis:  In its quest for independence, Kosovo must prove that it is capable of protecting minority populations.  The death of President Rugova has left a vacuum into which more radical groups might move.  The risk of armed conflict between the leaderless and non-violent Democratic League of Kosovo and its two main counterparts, both representing former guerillas, poses a threat well into the future.  For the time being, UNMIK police and the Kosovo Police Service are on high alert and have increased security checkpoints throughout Kosovo at its most vulnerable points.  If the event that attacks on the Serb minority increase significantly, Kosovo might get its independence more quickly, but probably at the cost of a territorial partition and paring away of its largely Serb northeast, plus an exchange of populations—an event that could be extremely violent.    

KOSOVO: Blast In Pristina [10 November 2005]

Summary:  A Bomb detonated in the vicinity of the office of the Organization on Security and Cooperation in Europe highlights growing tensions over moves to make Kosovo an independent state.

Devlopment:  This was the third explosion to occur near the Pristina office of the Organization on Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) this year.  Planted in an Audi 44, the car bomb in the capital of the ethnic Albanian majority province caused no casualties.  The incident occurred as the press reported from Belgrade, Serbia, that Russia is not prepared to use its veto in the UN Security Council to prevent Kosovo’s independence.  As tensions rise, US Under Secretary of State Nicholas Burns has warned that the International Peacekeeping Force in Kosovo (KFOR) will use force to put down violence by those who wish to keep the status quo. 

Analysis:  Although Serbia feels betrayed by Russia, the independence of Kosovo is now a foregone conclusion.  The challenge will be to find a political solution that enables the province’s small Serbian minority to live securely in the new country.  The Serbian Orthodox Church will not abandon Pristina and its surroundings, where that church’s foundational sanctuary and monasteries are located.