NATO: Albania and Croatia Join [10 April 2009]

Summary: In a move to help stabilize the Balkans, on 1 April 2009, NATO welcomed Albania and Croatia as its 27^th and 28^th members.

Development: As NATO gets ready to celebrate its 60^th birthday, Albania and Croatia are welcomed as new members, who not long ago attained their independence with the aid of NATO air strikes. Macedonia, looking to join, was prevented due to an ongoing dispute over a shared provincial name with Greece. Both Albanian and Croatian representatives have openly pledged that they are ready to commit troops to Afghanistan, where NATO currently has a 55,000 strong International Security Assistance Force (ISAF).

Analysis: As Albania and Croatia join NATO, the stability of the Balkans is increasing. With the annexation of these two former Yugoslav Republics, the push for Bosnia and Serbia is inevitably next. By joining NATO, Serbia will be sending a clear message to Russia that it is interested in western support. This move could incite Russia to cut economic aid to the nation and jeopardize the Serbia-Russia energy agreement. The move by NATO to accept the former Yugoslav Republics also could be seen as a strategic move to keep the re-arming of Russia in check.

[Adi Jarovic]

NATO: Russia and NATO Agree on Joint Military Exercises [17 November 2005]

Summary:  Russian General Staff Chief Yuri Baluyevsky has assigned the Russian 15^th Motor Rifle Bridge to begin conducting joint peacekeeping and antiterrorism exercises with NATO forces.

Development: On April 21, 2005, Russia and NATO signed a “Status of Force Agreement” which involved the beginnings of a murky alliance between the two.  However, the recent NATO-Russian meeting summed up that initial agreement with stated goals of performing 42 joint activities while working to overcome language barriers, technological issues, and the problems of joint-command structures inherent in combined military moves.  Also, old rivalries are certainly going to affect the situation for the older generation commanders as they clearly remember the extent two which the two were enemies.

Russian top commanders explicitly said that its forces are trying for international peace keeping missions and antiterrorist operations which include Special Forces and the Russian Navy.  In fact, two ships from the Black Sea Fleet will take part in NATO’s Operation Active Endeavor and help patrol the Mediterranean Sea.  Active Endeavor was originally begun to conduct operations against illegal arms movements, drug smuggling, and immigration enforcement.

Analysis: It remains to be proven how effective Russia and NATO can work together, but if they can, Russia could prove to be a great asset in the war on terrorism.  Further, the situation creates an interesting triangular relationship between Moscow, Beijing, and the West.  Initially, recent joint exercises between China and Russia had some military analysts worried about.  Some support the Long-Cycle view of history that suggests those moves were nothing but the power system of international politics trying to balance itself, but this new development could re-isolate China militarily.  If NATO can pull Moscow about from Beijing, it may force Chinese officials to rethink some aspects of foreign policy and the extent to which they can successfully assert themselves on the world stage.  This is especially true because without Russia, China is alone and surrounded by rival states such as South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan.