POLAND: Worry Over US Commitments [12 November 2008]

Summary: Warsaw is concerned that lessened support for the US Missile Shield plan by the incoming US President, Barack Obama, will weaken Poland’s national security and expose it to growing pressure from Russia.

Development: President Elect, Barack Obama, has not given full backing to the plans to build a missile defense system in Poland.  Poland’s President, Lech Kaczynski, and one of Obama’s foreign policy advisers, Denis McDonough, have publicly differed about where President Elect Obama stands on the issue.  Throughout the election campaign, Obama supported the missile contract with Poland, but only when the technology is proved to be workable. For his part, President Kaczynski argues that Obama’s support for the strategic partnership and military co operation between the two countries should mean continued emphasis on the agreement covering the missile shield and other military cooperation. Warsaw also faces skepticism from European Union leaders, who believe the missile base does not contribute to confidence-building between the EU and Moscow, and does not improvement security in the European region.

Analysis: When Barack Obama was elected to the US presidency, the Polish President had high hopes for a stronger alliance with the United States. Although President Obama says he supports a strong military alliance with Poland, his doubts on the missile contract would unfavorably affect Poland’s plans to continue improving its own military capabilities.  Warsaw is concerned that a delay in the construction of the base would also keep Poland from receiving better training for its soldiers and other military cooperation, which are also part of the contract. At the moment, Warsaw is feeling exposed by new uncertainties in its relations with the US, at a time when Moscow is pressing ahead with its plans to build a counter-base in Kaliningrad near Poland’s border.  If the alliance with the US now seems less than solid, Poland cannot expect its European allies to step up to its defense.  Most European Union leaders have expressed little confidence in the missile defense base concept and would rather not antagonize Russia on this issue.

[Samantha Welch]

POLAND: Moscow Issues Threat Over US Base [27 October 2008]

Summary: Russian statements on the US missile base reflect genuine concern that the US is consolidating its position in Poland in ways that threaten Moscow’s national security.

Development: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Ivanov said military action would be a necessary in response to the US anti-missile base in Poland.  According to Moscow, the US base, only 300 km from its border, is a threat to its national security, regardless of the purported purely defensive function of the facility. Russia explained, however, that the rumor of a nuclear attack in response to the base construction is untrue. Moscow continues to pressure Warsaw over the decision to participate in the missile shield project and question Washington’s claim the shield will only be used to target missile attacks by ‘rogue states’ like Iran.  Russian officers say that, despite the anti-missile role of the radars at the base, the system will be able to look deep into Russia and could be used to target US weapons in a massive strike against its own offensive systems.

Analysis: Russian ‘military’ action will most likely be further displays of military power, both in America’s perceived backyard, and in Western Europe, and a shifting of military forces to Kaliningrad, the small province of Russia bordering Poland in the event of any future Russia-West confrontation. Russia will also likely target new Topol-M and RS-24 ICBM’s, both designed to beat the US missile shield project, to neutralize the US Polish missile base and to be used as a preemptive strike force in the event of nuclear war. Moscow sees Warsaw’s participation in the project as a hostile act and will use diplomatic and economic leverage against Poland, hoping to force a shift in Warsaw’s policies short of outright military conflict. 

[Samantha Welch]

POLAND: Modernizing its Military [21 October 2008]

Summary: Poland works to enhance its military with the new defense missile base placed by the US and enlarging its army size and bringing in more equipment.

Development: Several new programs will be launched to modernize Poland’s new military. Surface-to-air missile systems will be installed to counteract short and medium-range missiles. These include a battery of Patriot surface-to-air missiles, to be deployed as part of the national air defense system. Other programs include equipping the Polish army with modern helicopters and building new naval vessels. The Polish air force will receive the last of 48 US F-16 fighter jets. The army will receive Finnish-made armored personnel carriers and Israeli-made Spike anti-tank missiles. Also Poland will switch from a conscript to a professional military numbering 120,000. Sixty billion zloty ($24.5 billion) is projected to be spent between 2009 and 2018 on military modernization.

Analysis: By launching weapons programs with up-to-date technology and equipment, Warsaw is strengthening its defensive capabilities for the long term. Russia’s threats over the location of part of the US missile defense shield in Poland, which includes a threat to do anything at any cost if needed to protect itself and its allies, makes Russia for now the projected opponent of Poland’s defensive build up.  Of course, the Poles can never forget that thrice in their history their nation has been conquered and absorbed by powers both to the east and west—most recently in 1939.  For now, however, Warsaw’s good relations with the US continue to strengthen, while its membership in both NATO and the EU enhance both its strategic posture and economic prospects. 

[Samantha Welch]

POLAND: Site for Missile Defense [9 March 2006]

Summary:  The selection of Poland’s Tatra Mountains as a base for the United States National Missile Defense (NMD) program would not sit well with Moscow.

Development:  Poland is emerging as a favored site in Europe for the US/NATO National Missile Defense (NMD) system.  The Pentagon is now in the process of choosing a missile base site in Europe to serve as one of the overseas components of the system.  The NMD is designed to protect the United States, NATO members, and Japan from a missile attack by a rogue state. 

Analysis:  Poland is a strong supporter of US defense policy, which showed when it backed the US invasion into Iraq in 2003 and later put troops there.  Warsaw undoubtedly hopes the offer of an NMD site will cement US-Poland defense ties for the long term.  The site would also be attractive to NATO, for it would be available to counter any threat to Europe from, for example, a nuclear armed Iran or, less likely, from Russia.  One of the first new entrants into NATO, Poland is determined to sign on the United States as its protecting power.  As the most partitioned state in modern European history (since 1648), Poland most fears Russia, but it does not entirely trust Germany either. 

Moscow will not be happy about the new base.  President Putin will face bitter criticism from hardliner nationalists and communists.  Perhaps partly to offset such criticism, Putin has been talking about a new Russian IBM, one that can change its path while in flight and thus avoid countermeasures.

POLAND: Key Pipeline Bypass [3 November 2005]

Summary:  The Russia-Germany deal to run a gap pipeline under the Baltic Sea and bypass Poland is a disappointment to Warsaw and will engender increased mistrust in Poland for both Russia and Germany. 

Development:  In September, Germany and Russia’s energy giant Gazprom agreed to construct a pipeline under the Baltic Sea from the Russian Port of Vyborg to the German city of Greifswald.  The pipeline will begin operation in 2010, with an initial annual capacity of 27.5 billion cubic meters.  This eventually will rise to 55 billion cubic meters per year.  In addition to Poland, the pipeline will bypass the Baltic States.

Analysis:  The news cannot have come at a good time, as Polish elections are just ended and Lech Kaczynski of the Law and Justice Party now in the Presidency.  Poland has long relied on international pipelines as a major source of revenue.  This time, however, Warsaw has been left out in the cold on a pipeline that will provide a vast amount of gas to Western Europe.  As a new member of the European Union, Poland could well feel slighted by Germany and may conclude that Berlin is sending a message about Warsaw’s closer strategic partnership to the United States.  Having been partitioned out of existence thrice in its history, the last time after the Hitler-Stalin Pact in 1939, Poland has a deep, endemic distrust of both the greater powers between which, uneasily, it lies.