RUSSIA: MiG-29K Aircraft to Upgrade Naval Air Capability [14 October 2009]

Summary: The deployment of MiG-25K aircraft to the Admiral Kuznetso in 2010 wil enable Russia’s only aircraft carrier to shift from a defensive to an offensive role.

Development: A Defense Ministry official stated 9 October that Russia’s Naval Forces would be buying at least 24 MiG-29K multirole fighters. They will be replacing the current fleet of Su-33 fighters aboard the Admiral Kuznetsov, Russia’s only operating aircraft carrier. The Admiral Kuznetsov (pictured to the right) currently operates 16 Yak-41M VTOL (vertical take off/landing) interceptors, twelve Su-33 multirole fighters, and 24 helicopters. MiG-29K deliveries are expected to begin in 2010, with the current order costing an estimated billion dollars.

Analysis: The addition of MiG-29Ks to the Admiral Kuznetsov provides a new threat to western navies. The Su-33 is not a true multi-role fighter as it was designed to gain air superiority in interception and combat air patrol missions around the carrier. This gave the Kuznetsov a defensive role, employed to provide air cover and anti-submarine support to other surface ships. The MiG-29K is a true multirole fighter, capable of performing various mission types and engaging land, sea, and air targets. This allows the Kuznetsov to be used for more than defensive purposes, including using its aircraft to seek out and destroy other surface vessels. There are several other reasons Russia is replacing their fleet of Su-33 fighters. The main reason is the current order of MiG-29Ks (pictured above) being ordered by India for the Admiral Gorshkov (Soviet-era aircraft carrier being refurbished for the Indian Navy). Su-33 fighters are not cost effective to produce in small quantities, and the current compliment aboard the Kuznetsov are due for decommission in 2015. MiG-29Ks offer a more viable solution to this problem, as production is already underway on 16 MiG-29Ks for India; which may order up to an additional 28 aircraft.

The MiG-29K has also undergone extensive technological advances in recent years, while the Su-33 has not been updated and still employs 1990’s technology. MiG-29Ks and Su-33s (both pictured to the right, the MiG-29K in blue) were both developed in the final years of the Soviet Union, with the intention of both aircraft being deployed on two 80,000 ton aircraft carriers under construction. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the carrier project was scraped and the need for a single aircraft design ended with the Russian navy choosing the Su-33 for deployment on its only remaining carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov. This was due to the Su-33 having both a superior range and payload over the MiG-29K. Since that time however, the MiG-29K has been revised and redesigned several times, resulting with the incorporation of new technology, an increased payload and flight range that is similar to the Su-33, and higher maneuverability than the Su-33 or previous MiG-29 designs. The MiG-29K is also much lighter at 18,000kg than the Su-33 at 34,000, making it a smaller aircraft (as illustrated above, MiG-29K in blue, Su-33 in black). This allows for the Admiral Kuznetsov to operate 30-44 MiG-29Ks, compared to the current 12-30 Su-33s it may employ.

[Mathew Rathe]

RUSSIA: New Military Doctrine [14 October 2009]

Summary: Russia’s new military doctrine will focus on addressing the problems with current military revision and modernization, some tweaking of nuclear use doctrine, all in light of economic developments since 2000.  

Development: Russia currently is outlining her new military doctrine entitled The New Face of the Russian Armed Forces until 2030. According to statements on 8 October by Nikolai Patrushev, the current secretary of Russia’s Security Council, the new doctrine may contain some changes to the scenarios that could trigger the use of nuclear weapons or preventive strikes against potential foes. The Security Council has stated the need to revise the current military doctrine of the Russian Federation (RF), which was ratified in 2000, claiming that “drastic changes have occurred in the geopolitical and military situation in the world”.  He added that the RF, “would like to make this new military doctrine transparent so that people in the country and abroad will know what we have developed and how we want to work”. The new structure according to Patrushev will be optimized through the use of combined arms units performing similar tasks. The draft doctrine will be given to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev for consideration by the end of the year and is expected to set the precedent for Russia’s military until 2030.   

Analysis: This possible revision of nuclear weapons policy is not the big issue in the proposed new doctrine. The revisions primarily address  problems facing the modernization of the armed forces and changes in the economic climate in Russia. The current military doctrine already provided the most radical shift in nuclear policy in Russian history, allowing for use of nuclear arms in retaliation to a nuclear strike on the Moscow and her allies, or as a preemptive measure against a large scale conventional assault. This break from Soviet-era policy resulted from the inability of Russia’s conventional forces to counter a major western military incursion in 2000. Moscow has evolved from this weakened post-Soviet state, and massive reforms and modernization have begun to affect every aspect of its armed forces. Since 2000, Russia has been shifting to a western style military of voluntary, rather than conscription-based forces. Although Russia used dated equipment in the field during the Georgian conflict, their forces have grown quite capable with Putin’s restructuring of the officer corps and refocusing of mission.  Despite this, Russia’s energy-exportation based economy has also taken a significant hit resulting in financial limitations on Moscow’s military spending. Current military developments and buildup will likely be cut back, postponed, or extended past their initial deployment plans.

[Mathew Rathe & Tryggvi Hjaltason] 

RUSSIA: New Military Pact with India [14 October 2009]

Situation Report: RIA Novosti reported on October 10 that Russia and India are expected to sign a new ten year military cooperation agreement in December. India’s Defense Minister A.K. Antony will be arriving in Moscow this week to lay the groundwork for this pact with his Russian counterpart Anatoly Serdyukov. Russia and India’s cooperation agreements include 200 joint projects, such as the Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier modernization and sale to India’s navy, BranMos Missile development, and the transfer of T-90 tank technology and licensing to India for production.

RUSSIA: Naval Revival Continues [7 October 2009]

Summary: Anti-submarine warfare exercises being held this week follow Medvedev’s statement on increased naval strength in the next decade, signaling Russia’s pursuit of  a strong blue water navy.

Development: Russian Naval Forces will be conducting anti-submarine warfare (ASW) exercises from Tuesday 6 October until Thursday 8 October. A total of eight warships, submarines, and support vessels-along with ASW helicopter and aircraft support-from the Pacific Fleet will be conducting anti-submarine exercises in the Sea of Japan.   These include

the Varyag, pictured to the right, a Project 1164 Slava class guided missile cruiser commissioned as the Pacific Fleet’s flagship in 1990.

Another task group from the Black Sea Fleet-consisting of the Smetlivy, (a Project 61 Kashin Class Guided Missile Destroyer commissioned in 1969 pictured below) three ASW corvettes, and a Kilo class attack submarine-will also be conducting similar exercises off the Russian Black Sea coastline. Both task forces will be conducting similar live fire exercises and anti-submarine search and destroy operations.

Analysis: Russia’s continued naval exercises are part of an attempt to increase her influence and image across the globe. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russian Navy fell into a state of decay with numerous naval accidents occurring including the loss of the Kursk submarine in 2000. This has hurt Moscow’s image globally as a naval power, and Putin’s regime is attempting to rebuild it. Massive reform plans aim to transform the aging fleet of 29 surface vessels into a formidable armada of 300 warships—including six projected carrier battle groups--by 2025. These ASW exercises however, are attracting attention because both the Pacific and Black Sea Fleets, Russia’s largest and smallest fleets respectively, are conducting them at the same time. These exercises also are occurring shortly after Russian President Medvedev announced on 28 September 2009 that Moscow “will be able to reestablish our Navy in the next decade at levels that our state will require…We need a strong navy”. This shows Moscow still intends to follow through with its ship building plans for a large blue water navy to re-establish itself as a global power. While Russia awaits her shipbuilding programs to be able to begin reviving the four fleets, the Naval Forces have taken an extremely active stance globally, conducting numerous joint exercises with other world navies, and proving to the West—America in particular—she is capable of deploying her fleets to the far reaches of the globe.  In the coming year, Russia will continue to deploy her fleet elements to important strategic areas the world over, making her presence known, and spreading her influence, particularly in areas considered to be dominated by the United States, such as the Caribbean, Mediterranean, and Pacific Ocean.

[Mathew Rathe]

RUSSIA: India Continues to Purchase Russian Arms [7 October 2009]

Summary: Russia has been India’s primary military hardware supplier for nearly a half century, and recent arms contracts indicate New Delhi will continue this relationship, leaving Western arms corporations with only a small part of the business.

Development: India announced interest in buying 50 additional Su-30 multirole fighters from Russia. This would expand India’s Su-30 fleet by 18%, from its previously ordered 230 Su-30s from the Russian Federation. Russia is currently testing MiG-29K and MiG-29KUB multirole-fighters (single and two seat, respectively, carrier based variants of the MiG-29) that are scheduled for delivery to India. This is part of the original $1.5 billion deal to deliver 12 MiG-29Ks, four MiG-29KUBs, six combined Ka-27 Helix-A anti-submarine helicopters and Ka-31 Helix radar picket helicopters and a refurbished Soviet-era aircraft carrier, the Admiral Gorshkov, to the Indian Navy by 2012.

Analysis: This is the most recent arms contract between Russia and India. India’s bid for an additional 50 Su-30s indicates its India’s interest in continuing to use Russia as its primary arms supplier. Aside from the Admiral Gorshkov deal, India is also negotiating for three Krivak IV class guided missile frigates and the lease of a new generation Akula-II class nuclear attack submarine from Russia. India has been one of Russia’s most important military hardware customers since 1960, and it seems this relationship will continue. New Delhi is allocating billions of dollars to modernizing its armed forces, with Russia serving as the primary arms supplier. India, China, and Venezuela are Russia’s primary arms clients, making those countries very important not only to Russia’s arms industry, but to its economy as well, which is based primarily on energy and military hardware exports.

[Tryggvi Hjaltason]