SERBIA: Alternative Offer from the EU [3 February 2008]

Summary:  The European Union has offered an alternative to the Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA), which could change alongside the upcoming presidential elections.

Development:  The EU has set February 7 for the signing of trade and visa accords with Serbia. Although this was supposed to be the date to sign the SAA, the Dutch government refused to give its consent for an SAA.  Holland’s signature was contingent on Belgrade’s arrest of Ratko Mladic, the Bosnian Serb general wanted by the International War Crimes Tribunal on charges of genocide.  The EU's SAA dilemma has several underlying issues, such as its mission to replace UNMIK (the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo), which Belgrade opposes, as well as any consequences that an EU move might have on the presidential election in Serbia.  The Serbian government denies it has any knowledge of the whereabouts of Mladic, who is believed by the Tribunal’s prosecutors to be in Serbia.  Instead of a date for the signing of the already initialed SAA, a ministerial meeting came up with an offer of comprehensive cooperation in the sectors of economy, education, and the complete canceling of visas for Serbian nationals.

Analysis:  Serbia’s presidential election will soon be entering its second round of voting, in which the pro-European incumbent President, Boris Tadic, will be facing extreme-nationalist Tomislav Nikolic, who won the first round on January 20.  The outcome of the second round of this election will see Serbia either continue the steps it is taking towards admission into the EU, or a path that aligns it more closely to Moscow.  The political alternative offered by the EU shows that headway is being made, but that Serbia needs to come together as a country in order to prove to other European countries that they are a valuable asset in Europe.  For now, Brussels is pressuring Kosovo to hold off on its expected unilateral declaration of independence until at least after Serbia’s presidential election, but preferably longer so that the EU can finalize the SAA.

[Victoria Aceves]

SERBIA: Security for Minority in Kosovo [20 November 2007]

Summary:  The Serbian Army Chief of Staff’s request, that NATO take preventive steps against anti-Serb activity in Kosovo by extremist groups like the Albanian National Army (ANA), may be an initiative to gain a permanent protective framework for the Serb minority.

Development:  NATO responded by assuring Gen. Zdravko Ponoš that KFOR (the Kosovo Force of NATO) peacekeepers were ready to provide security for all residents of the province.  It was reported earlier in the week that the ANA (Albanian National Army) was actively recruiting members in Kosovo.  On Wednesday, a spokesman for the Kosovo Police Service (KPS) and KFOR said the two forces "control the entire territory of Kosovo" and consider "organizations such as ANA illegal."  KFOR has enough troops on the ground to provide security in Kosovo, the spokesman for the peacekeepers said, and added that contingency plans for extra troop deployment existed, but these are unlikely to be needed.  KFOR currently has some 16,000 soldiers in Kosovo.

Analysis:  KFOR has the responsibility to take measures against any hostile group that foments violence against the declining Serb minority in Kosovo.  ANA represents the army of a future Kosovar Republic, whose independence is only a matter of time. It could become a potential threat to KFOR, should independence for Kosovo be postponed indefinitely in current negotiations. The Serbs are uneasy that, in the event of a further postponement, Kosovar nationalists will put more pressure on officials to make a decision.  Belgrade and Moscow probably realize that Kosovo independence is inevitable, but calculate that territorial adjustments in the north and east of the Province—essentially through partition—would bring the Serb minority in Kosovo permanently into Serbia.

[Victoria Aceves]

SERBIA: Clash Highlights Political Polarization [17 October 2007]

Summary:  Clashes between Neo-Nazis and centrist and leftist groups have resulted in turmoil in the national parliament and may become the focus of the country polarizing politics.

Development:  In Novi Sad, the second largest city in Serbia, the clash between Neo-Nazis and antifascist protestors caused the adjournment of a parliamentary debate.  Observers at the scene accused the military police of standing by while the Neo-Nazi group, dubbed Nacionalni Stroj, attacked what had been a peaceful gathering of 5,000 people at a monument to those killed in a 1942 fascist raid on the Danube River Quay.  The memorial march included leaders of various political parties and officials from parliament, as well as citizens and members of non-governmental organizations. The clash began with an exchange of insults and escalated to stone throwing, before police intervened.  Angry legislators suspended debate in Parliament when news of the clash reached Belgrade. 

Analysis:  The continuing unrest between the antifascist groups and the neo-Nazis will not disappear any time soon.  Protesters and some members of Parliament are calling for the resignation of the Minister of Defense. His response was that the police acted in a timely manner will not appease his opponents. The neo-Nazi groups will continue to thrive in a state where even some Members of Parliament seem to be supporting them.

[Victoria Aceves]

SERBIA: State Continues to Dissolve [2 March 2006]

Summary: Belgrade’s rejection of the European Union-suggested framework for next month’s referendum on Montenegrin independence could lead to a surge of violence in  contiguous parts of Serbia and Montenegro.

Development:  Disagreements between pro- and anti-independence groups in the former Yugoslavia and the EU erupted when the latter proposed a formula that 55 percent of eligible voters in Montenegro must vote for independence before Montenegro could be allowed to secede from Serbia.

Analysis:  A failure to agree on terms of the referendum will most likely lead to a boycott by the opposing sides, thus slowing the bid for independence previously supported by 41.4% of registered voters.  Montenegro split its economy from Serbian control during the Milošević era in order to develop its own framework for growth and foreign investment.  Montenegro also has separate central banks and a different official currency.  Montenegro’s leaders believe the success of these initiatives proves their country is stable and able to contribute to the EU.  Although the Montenegrin Parliament already chose its national anthem, flag and national day in 2004, the referendum is tentatively slated for April 30, 2006.

SERBIA: Aid Cut Off [1 April 2004]

Summary:  The United States is cutting of its aid to Serbia as Belgrade refuses to end its lack of cooperation in the search for war criminals.

Development:  The Serbian Parliament has recently allotted funds to help alleged and indicted war criminals from the 1999 war, including Slobodan Milosevic.  The funds that the parliament has allotted will pay for the defense of these alleged criminals, give the accused a salary while on trial, and provide funds for their families.  This parliament was elected just under two months ago and is dominated by Serbian nationalists.

Assistance to alleged war criminals violates the requirements that both the United States and the United Nations have set in order for Serbia to receive international aid.  Both require Serbia to cooperate in the prosecution of the war criminals.  The United States has indefinitely suspended the remaining $ 53 million of its annual donation of $ 100 million to the Balkan state.  This cut off does not include humanitarian assistance.