UKRAINE: Moscow Promotes Presidential Candidate [16 September 2009]

Summary: The Kremlin is increasing its campaign for a pro-Russian candidate in the upcoming Ukrainian presidential elections.

Development: On Monday, parliamentary leaders issued a statement saying that Ukraine and Russia have entered an economic and political cold war. Russia has been redoubling its efforts to influence the upcoming Ukrainian elections to secure a pro-Russian president. Moscow and its media have been persistent in directly targeting the current president, Viktor Yushchenko, whose popularity rating has fallen to an all-time low of 3.8 percent. Yushchenko’s opponent, who is the current frontrunner in the presidential election, is the formerly Russian-backed candidate, Viktor Yanukovych of the Pro-Russian ‘Party of Regions.’ While Moscow has not officially adopted Yanukovych, the Russian media is continuing to attack Yushchenko by name.

Analysis: Relations between Ukraine and Russia have always been conflicted, but have become even more fragile since Europe started experiencing the economic recession. Moscow’s obvious involvement in Ukrainian politics, through media campaigns, has reduced relations to their lowest point since the fall of the Soviet Union. The presidential election has two pro-Moscow contenders.  In addition to fears over Russia’s political penetration, tensions over accusations by Moscow that Ukraine aided Georgia last year have left Ukrainian officials concerned of Russia’s real intentions. Moscow's interest in Ukraine has increased dramatically since the recession began in Europe. Ukraine is economically vulnerable to Russian influence and will experience further intrusions into its politics in the coming months. Moscow’s goal is to restore its domination in Ukraine and break Kiev’s connection with Europe and the US.  Ethnic Ukrainians have a deep antagonism toward Russia, but the country has a substantial, if minority, Russian population in the East and in Crimea that could ally with disaffected and opportunistic Ukrainians. Should Ukraine pull away from the West, the balance of power in Eastern Europe will see a dramatic shift towards Russia.

[Matt Whitney]

UKRAINE: Yanukovych Proposes Social Reform [4 September 2009]

Summary: Parliament to vote on a law to improve social standards in a political move from the Regions Party leader. 

Development: On Wednesday, the Ukrainian parliament was in the process of passing a law that would raise the minimum wage and pension levels. The Regions Party leader, Viktor Yanukovych, announced that parliament would be in session on Friday to ensure passage of the law. The Regions Party is the primary supporter of the law and is the majority group in the Ukrainian parliament.

Analysis: After losing the last presidential election, Yanukoyvch’s push for social reform is likely an attempt to gain support from potential voters in the upcoming January election. The proposed law would provide financial support during the recession. While improving the standard of living, it would increase Ukraine’s deficit. Ukraine is optimistic about a fourth loan from the International Monetary Fund, and passing a law to raise the floor on income standards could positively influence the IMF’s decision.

[Matt Whitney]

UKRAINE: Black Sea Border Drawn [4 February 2009]

Summary: The Settlement by the World Court of a border dispute between Ukraine and Romania means both countries can now reduce their dependence on Russia by exploiting oil and gas resources in the formerly disputed area.

Development: On Tuesday, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) settled a 40-year old border dispute between Ukraine and Romania of their respective territorial claims in the Black Sea.  The dispute centered on whether an uninhabited outcrop of rocks, called Serpent Island, was indeed of sufficient land mass to be considered an island, as claimed by Ukraine.  The underlying issue was the estimate that the territorial and continental seabed off the outcrop, amounting to 12,000 square kilometers, contained proven reserves of natural gas and oil—some billions of cubic meters of the former and ten million tons of the latter.  The ICJ agreed the outcrop is an island, but drew a boundary in favor of Romania, which thereby confirmed its title to 80 percent of the seabed area.  Romania accepted the decision, as did Ukraine, which gained title to the remaining 20 percent of the resource rich area.

Analysis: With both sides gaining confirmed title and access to their respective portions of the disputed area, the way is now clear for the exploitation of the resources, both proven and that still to be discovered.  This probably is why Ukraine and Romania decided to forgo a war of words—and perhaps more—in favor of a judicial settlement.  Both countries desperately need to reduce their dependence on Russian natural gas and oil.  Beyond that, of course, the decision, and the acceptance of the ICJ decision, is a nice win for the utility of international law.

[Matt Whitney]

UKRAINE: NATO Participation Provokes Russia [3 February 2008]

Summary:  Ukraine’s desire to participate in the NATO action plan has solicited threats of sanctions from Russia, as Moscow continues to press its newly muscular foreign policy.

Development:  On January 23, Russia’s Foreign Affairs Ministry stated that if Ukraine joins the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Moscow will take “adequate measures” against Kiev to guard against Western encroachment on Russia’s borders.  Amidst talks of economic sanctions, Ukraine’s Speaker of Parliament Arseniy Yatsenyuk insists the country is not seeking full NATO membership, but only participation in the organization’s action plan.  The Foreign Affairs Ministry noted that such participation is a preliminary step that nations desiring member status must complete.  It concluded that Ukraine’s move is a violation of the 1997 Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation, and Partnership, which keeps each nation from participating in or supporting actions that may damage the other’s security.  NATO Alliance representatives will consider Ukraine’s request during their annual meeting this April in Bucharest.

Analysis:  Given its historic fear about attacks across the North European Plain, Russia does not want western military forces or political influence closing in on its borders.  Though it will not be able to deter Ukraine’s participation in the action plan in three months, Russia will seek to prevent Kiev from becoming a NATO member, thereby allowing it to maintain a weak buffer on its western rim.  It will use soft power and hard-power intimidation to pit the Ukrainian majority, which opposes NATO membership, against their government.  Sanctions from Moscow will likely target gas and oil exports as well as agricultural imports.  Russia will continue to build its Black Sea Fleet at Novorossiysk and increase its presence in the joint Russian-Ukrainian base at Sevastopol.  If unchecked, Russia’s efforts to foster public discontent will escalate until the Ukrainian government no longer possesses the minimum amount of support required to join NATO without threatening loss of power to pro-Russian political parties. 

[Lauren DeHamer]